@lxo And the other issue with this narrative is that Eastern European countries voluntarily sought admission to the EU and in some cases NATO. At the time, I thought NATO should have been abolished after the USSR broke up, but I admit that I was wrong.
Why did those countries, after spending over 45 years forcibly integrated with the social / political / economic / military aims of #Russia suddenly flee into the EU's and NATO's embraces? Could they have a clearer view of what awaited them if they did not join than world socialist organizations do?
I urge you to read beyond those groups' opinion pieces. Talk to people from Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Moldava, Ukraine ... it is shocking how anti-Russian they are, and how much their views on this war disagree with groups like Common Dreams and wsws.
I think Henry Kissinger thinks that #Ukraine joining #NATO would freeze the war at the current footprint and allow #Russia to claim victory while preventing them from expanding their footprint in the future. However, I think this is premature.
The time to freeze footprints is after #Putin's invasion forces and puppet states are displaced from most or all Ukrainian territory. Meanwhile, negotiations would encourage a future repeat unless there is nothing gained from the invasion.
Ex-CIA analyst thinks that the war in #Ukraine may be the final blow that leads to the break-up of #Russia into several smaller nations ... many of which would retain the nuclear weapons left behind.
Reasons include ethnic tensions (ethnic minority federated republics have thus far provided most of the soldiers sent to the war zones, and therefore, have suffered most of the losses).
> He predicted the world is facing “Yugoslavia with nukes” in reference to the bloody break-up of the former Balkan state.
> When the Soviet Union broke up in 1991 into 15 new states, those where the superpower’s vast nuclear weapon arsenal was stationed were persuaded to give them up.
> That meant avoiding a terrifying situation in which a flurry of nations suddenly acquire weapons of mass destruction.
> But [former CIA analyst Paul] Goble chillingly warns “we can certainly get that now” adding: “I suspect that there could be a lot more people with nuclear weapons than anybody is talking about.”
Without much evidence, I'd lean toward Putinoids of the variety who share daily maps of the Bakhmut area showing slow gains of #Russia as it seeks to enslave its neighbor #Ukraine.
"In tomorrow’s world, we should not worry if some roads to peace go through Beijing, New Delhi or Brasília. So long as all roads to war do not go through Washington." Trita Parsi in brilliant #nytimes op-ed.
There was a time when all roads to peace went through Washington. From the 1978 Camp David Accords between Israel and Egypt brokered by President Jimmy Carter to the 1993 Oslo Accords signed on the White House lawn to Senator George Mitchell’s Good Friday Agreement that ended the fighting in Northern Ireland in 1998, America was the indispensable nation for peacemaking. To Paul Nitze, a longtime diplomat and Washington insider, “making evident its qualifications as an honest broker” was central to America’s influence after the end of the Cold War.
But over the years, as America’s foreign policy became more militarized and as sustaining the so-called rules-based order increasingly meant that the United States put itself above all rules, America appears to have given up on the virtues of honest peacemaking.
We deliberately chose a different path. America increasingly prides itself on not being an impartial mediator. We abhor neutrality. We strive to take sides in order to be “on the right side of history” since we view statecraft as a cosmic battle between good and evil rather than the pragmatic management of conflict where peace inevitably comes at the expense of some justice.
This has perhaps been most evident in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but is now increasingly defining America’s general posture. In 2000, when Madeleine Albright defended the Clinton administration’s refusal to veto a U.N. Security Council Resolution condemning the excessive use of force against Palestinians, she cited the need for the United States to be seen as an “honest broker.” But since then, the United States has vetoed 12 Security Council resolutions expressing criticisms of Israel — so much for neutrality.
We started to follow a different playbook. Today, our leaders mediate to help “our” side in a conflict advance our position rather than to establish a lasting peace. We do it to demonstrate the value of allying with the United States. While this trend is more than two decades long, it has reached full maturity now with great-power competition with China becoming the organizing principle of U.S. foreign policy. This rivalry is, in the words of Colin Kahl, the under secretary of defense for policy, “not a competition of countries. It is a competition of coalitions.” Following Dr. Kahl’s logic, we keep our coalition partners close by offering them — in addition to military might — our services as a “partial broker” to tilt the scales of diplomacy in their favor.
It’s what you do when you see the world through the prism of a Marvel movie: Peace is born not out of compromise but out of total victory.
But just as America has changed, so has the world. Elsewhere in the world, Marvel movie logic is seen for what it is: Fairy tales where the simplicity of good versus evil leaves no space for compromise or coexistence. Few have the luxury of pretending to live in such fantasy worlds.
So while America may have lost interest in peacemaking, the world has not. As the Ukraine crisis has shown, America has been immensely effective in mobilizing the West but hopelessly clueless in inspiring the global south. While the Western nations wanted the United States to rally them to defend Ukraine, the global south was looking for leadership to bring peace to Ukraine — of which the United States has offered little to none.
But America not only has moved beyond peacemaking. It is also increasingly dismissive of other powers’ efforts to mediate. Though the White House officially welcomed the Saudi-Iranian normalization deal, it could not conceal its irritation at China’s new-won role as a broker in the Middle East. And Beijing’s earlier offer to mediate between Ukraine and Russia was quickly dismissed by Washington as a distraction, even though President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine welcomed it on the condition that Russian troops would withdraw from Ukrainian territory. As Mark Hannah of the Eurasia Group Foundation recently pointed out, there is an inherent hypocrisy “in touting Ukraine’s agency when it prosecutes war, but not when it pursues peace.”
Still, Xi Jinping of China seems undeterred. He traveled to Moscow this week and also plans to speak directly to Mr. Zelensky in what appears to be the preparation for an active mediation attempt to bring the war to an end.
Mr. Xi succeeded in bringing Iran and Saudi Arabia together precisely because he was on neither’s side. With stubborn discipline, Beijing maintained a neutral position on the two countries’ squabbles and didn’t moralize their conflict or bother with whose side history would take. Nor did China bribe Iran and Saudi Arabia with security guarantees, arms deals or military bases, as all too often is our habit.
Whether Mr. Xi’s formula will work to end Russia’s war on Ukraine remains to be seen. But just as a more stable Middle East where the Saudis and Iranians aren’t at each other’s throats benefits the United States, so too will any effort to get Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table.
In a multipolar world, shared responsibility for security can be a virtue that reduces the burden on Americans without increasing threats to U.S. interests. It is not security that we would give up, but the illusion that we are — and have to be — in control of developments far away. For too long, Americans have been told that if we do not dominate, the world will descend into chaos. In reality, as the Chinese mediation has shown, other powers are likely to step up to shoulder the burden of security and peacemaking.
The greatest threat to our own security and reputation is if we stand in the way of a world where others have a stake in peace, if we become a nation that doesn’t just put diplomacy last but also dismisses those who seek to put diplomacy first.
In tomorrow’s world, we should not worry if some roads to peace go through Beijing, New Delhi or Brasília. So long as all roads to war do not go through Washington.
#Turkiye leader Erdogan signals approval of #Finland joining #NATO ... still hesitant on #Sweden's application
After the fall of the USSR, I was in favor of abolishing NATO. Frankly, I was too idealistic. I imagined Europe becoming a sort of demilitarized zone but without conflicting armies on each side of said zone. But clearly, I was wrong.
People grumble about additional countries joining, and I say that those countries must have felt the danger growing. They could have steered a course that did not put them in union with either the "Western nations" nor the "former Soviet bloc" ... but instead, many sought to join the European Union ... an imperfect democracy, but still more democratic than what they saw on their Eastern borders. And even the EU, a non-military nation of nations, wasn't always enough.
So when #Poland and #Slovakia, both former Eastern Bloc / CENTO members, joined NATO, I don't see it as them being under the sway of Washington and Brussels, but them seeing something menacing to the East of them and wanting to join with a force large enough to meet and exceed that menace's force.
That's also why #Ukraine (which *twice* forced out governments because their leaders wanted to remain in #Russia's orbit) also applied to join both the #European_Union and #NATO ... despite NATO's clear intention never to admit them to its membership. So when Finland and Sweden finally decided that the threat of invasion was greater than their longstanding neutral stances could overcome, they too applied to join NATO.
Not because they want to lengthen the war, but because they clearly see that war is coming their way whether they want it or not, and that they need to prepare for it. And I think this is something anti-war folks need to understand. You're too late to stop the war. The war is here and Mr Putin and his cronies intend to expand it until people in Berlin and Paris have to either fight or beg for mercy. He's already trying to find excuses to engulf #Moldova in the fighting.
Whether Russia's leaders are motivated by empire or paranoia, they're looking to expand the war to other nations, not to end it. And thus, any negotiated settlement that doesn't flow from kicking their forces entirely out of Ukraine will be a temporary pause while they rebuild their forces and try to integrate what they've learned from the current war.
Unofficial referendum results show people in five regions of #Russia want to break away.
I'm sure that--with the government opposition they note in the article--the results cannot be accurate. But it does show that there are some currents flowing within the #Russian_Federation that could lead to its breakup given sufficient time.
Some of their claims sound like the claims being made by right-wing #putinoids. It is almost as though they're being fed their doctrines and beliefs by the same Moscow-based organizations.
The main reason why demands for negotiations between #Ukraine and #Russia are so utter pointless:
Since the amendment of the Russian constitution in 2014 (after the annexation of Crimea and its incorporation into Russian territory) and the amendment of the Russian constitution in 2022 (after annexation of the four Ukrainian oblasts and their incorporation into Russian territory), any Russian president or his negotiator would break the Russian constitution and commit high treason if he were to negotiate over these territories. At the same time, every Ukrainian president or his negotiator would break the Ukrainian constitution and commit high treason if he were to negotiate over these territories. Both presidents are obliged to defend and preserve their respective constitution.
That is: Russia as well as Ukraine, at the price of breaking their constitutions, cannot negotiate over these territories. Thus, only the war can decide who will have to amend his constitution.
So much contra the cheap Left who claims a) that negotiations are possible if people only want to; and b) that in reality it's the USA that is prolonging this war. Learn something!
To me the interesting question about #Putin is: What is the reason (or even: the cause) why Putin – clearly seeing early on the overall negative trends for #Russia (economically, financially, technically, demographically, etc.) – stopped caring about the future of the Russian population, stopped thinking about solutions and policy proposals, and started willfully to abandon Russia's future? Of course, him being a bully and a leader of a mafia state is one explanation (which I in large part underwrite), but going back to his first presidency in the early 2000s, his outlook was in part different. So, why did even Putin give up on Russia's future and started his chase into the rabbit hole of "sacral nationalism"? Was it: If Russia cannot succeed on any mundane field it must at öeast succeed in the non-mundane area?
@simsa04 Astute observation. I don't see a lot of "Russian fragmentation will happen regardless of the war's outcome" discussions. People seem to reserve that consequence for a clear Russian defeat, and as you point out, a defeat is not necessary for the state to fragment.
One thing the rulers of such statelets (subpartitions of #Russia) will have observed is how #Ukraine giving up nukes made it susceptible to invasion by its neighbor. So I would expect those leaders to be exceptionally resistant to nuclear non-proliferation efforts.
With the dissolution of the Soviet Union both Russia (the Russian Federation) and the West managed to keep the control over all nuclear weapons in the hand of one central Russian government. (Think Budapest Memorandum as precursor of START I.) But with the likely breakup of Russia in the near future it is not clear that such a control can be achieved and retained again. In fact, it seems likely (depending on who can get access to launch codes) that statelets may not even arise along ethnic or cultural lines but along power lines of military force and the control of nuclear weapons.
I don't thnik we will be as lucky as in 1991 and state actors can contain all of Russia's nuclear weapons under one central control. We will rather face, say, 50 years of immensely risky and dangerous developments, in which the once centralised control over Russia nuclear weapons will evaporate as possession of and trade in them will be a daily nightmare.
The downfall of Russia, the spread of nuclear weapons, the creation of half-criminal and impoverished statelets along military power lines, often with nuclear weapons, that is the legancy Putin will bequeath to the world. What a fucking moron this guy is...
It's not just that Russia has lost well-educated young people from the large cities of St. Petersburg and Moscow. It not just lost most of its IT workforce, young academics, and professionals in R&D as well as the "high tech" sector. Already prior to the war Russia's shortage of well-trained workers in the heavy industries and in resource extraction meant that it could not maintain its oil producing and transporting facilities without Western help. These Western companies are gone too.
So Russia will face an even worse demographic and economic decline than it already did prior to the war. The population will shrink, and with it the ability of Russia to maintain its economy, infrastructures, basic services, higher education. Instead it will be a nation of old folks quickly passing away. (The average life span of Russians born in 2000 is 65.3 years.)
With a rapidly shrinking population Russia will not be able to keep its statehood. Minorities will strive for independence and the breakup of Russia into various small ethno-states, will be the most probable outcome. In fact, it seems likely that various statelets will arise around strongmen from the former Russian military and security servcies who command control over forces and equipment (think Ramzan Kadyrov of the Chechen Republic). The main issue will be what happens to the 6,000 nuclear warheads Russia keeps in storage today.
Today as I was thinking about the Russian genocidal war on Ukraine, it occurred to me that even in the case that Russia wins the war (leaving aside what would constitute such a victory, probably anything that involves an outright surrender by Ukraine), still Russia as nation state as well as nation is done.
It is said that had WW II not occurred, Russia today would have had a population of about 500 million people, not the 150 million it counted prior to the war against Ukraine. Today's majority of Russian conscripts, recruits, and soldiers are in the age range of 18 - 24 years. About 180,000 Russian soldiers are said to have been already killed or wounded in Ukraine; 200,000 young people fled from Russia to the West when the war started; and about 200.000 men fled to the South-East when the first mobilisation in September 2022 took place. Taken together it doesn't sound exaggerated that Russia has lost approximately 600,000 young men over the war, people who were about to start a family and were the driving forces in the workforce.