It would be nice to have a big chunk of the people who are using #corpocentric #socnets like #Twitter and #Facebook and #Instagram move some or all of their presence over to the #OStatus and #ActivityPub branches of the #Fediverse, but I'd much rather they come because they want to try something different instead of coming because they are fleeing some change or impending change over there.

Why? Because these networks will never give them everything that those did. I personally believe that these networks can give some benefits that those cannot, but thus far, we've mostly tried to replicate their functionality ... without the benefit of nearly unlimited VC cash and a centralized model which puts $CentralizedNetwork at the center of its users' communications, where benefits built upon centralized knowledge of users' actions / choices / contacts.

Therefore, in 2-3 weeks, I expect 9 out of 10 new users to have have returned to Twitter ... or to some centralized network that springs up to duplicate Twitter without the Musk factor.

This has happened before. Maybe not on this scale, but it has happened. Multiple times. And always, most of them leave.